Category: Uncategorized
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Estimating existential risks to humanity: Remember to account for unknown unknowns
What are the odds that human civilization will be devastated, wiped out, or ‘reset’ by, say, a supervolcano? An asteroid impact? A pandemic? A.I. superintelligence deciding we’re obsolete? Nanoscale self-replicating machines consuming all biomass on Earth? The Large Hadron Collider creating a black hole that wipes out Earth? For any such scenario, the stakes may…
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Is Wim Hof a quack?
There is no shortage online of people selling quackery, be it selling colloidal silver to cure cancer and AIDS or claims that chiropractic “adjustment” will fix asthma and autism. Basically, a quack is a health fraud, a pseudoscientific snake oil salesman, that sort of thing. For centuries, people have fallen sway to scam artists and…
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Growth mindset: A case study in overhyped science
You’ve likely run into the term growth mindset if you’ve read an article or listened to a podcast about learning, success, or child education in recent years. Growth mindset is an idea evangelized by psychologist Carol Dweck throughout decades of research as well as her famous 2007 book Mindset: The New Psychology of Success. Her…
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Detecting fakes: Problems of sensitivity, specificity, and algorithmic bias
Imagine you developed a bot detector algorithm, a little program that could be deployed on every Twitter, Facebook, or Reddit comment to flag it as either real or made by a bot. Sounds incredibly useful, right? But before you get excited and go mass-banning all the accounts detected as bots, you might want to check…
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Interconnectedness, empathy, and free will
I would like to share a long excerpt about interconnectedness from Peace is Every Step, a short book by Buddhist philosopher, monk, and peace activist Thich Nhat Hanh; I’ll give some of my thoughts below that. Near the end of the book, he writes: “Usually we think that the tree is the mother and the…
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The principle of charity
Have you ever been discussing something with a person who disagreed with you and they just didn’t seem to listen? Maybe they twisted your words and interpreted what you said in the worst of ways? Indeed, maybe you yourself have been arguing with some ignorant anonymous jerk in the comments section of social media and…
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Science as a self-correcting enterprise: How do psychological scientists behave when previous results don’t replicate?
A key component of scientific practice has long been reproducibility: the expectation that any experiment performed should yield the same basic results when someone else performs it; in other words, the expectation that other people can follow your procedure and reproduce your findings. Even the most famous and respected scientists should have their work checked.…